Lies, Damned Lies, and Racist Statistics

Reuters had an article last year that still survives on a few blogs: A number of people of foreign origin sing the praises of Denmark, which was so sweet - until:

"The Nordic (region) is the best place to practice our religion," said Abukar, who has lived in Finland for 10 years. He also praised the region's welfare system, which ensures a good level of education and health care for all.

But the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States and July bombings in London, as well as other action by extremist Islamists, have soured attitudes toward the minority faith among the predominantly Lutheran populations of Europe's north.

"People mind their own business, but sometimes, if people know you're Muslim, there are all kinds of accusations," said denim-clad Mahmoud, offering a can of Mecca-Cola. He says he is tired of always being on the defensive.

Racist attacks in Denmark -- which has detained eight Muslims under its anti-terrorism law since September -- grew by a third in the first eight months this year, compared to 2004.

The story is often repeated in Danish media: "Racist attacks are growing in Denmark", or so it goes, "the numbers have more than doubled from 32 in 2004 to 81 in 2005". This "fact" is often repeated - and the rising number is associated with right-wing extremists and "the tone" in the debate.

Number of report to PET of Racist and religious attacks

And yet, this graph to the right (taken from Danish television) clearly shows a fall in the number of reports. How can this be? If you can read Danish, I recommend that you go to Uriasposten - because most of the present page is just a summary.

Let's look at an article from May 2005: Investigates extent of racist crime (Danish text, my translation)

The Danish Security Intelligence Service (PET) will investigate, whether the country's police districts are sufficiently diligent when reporting racist or religious attacks to the service.

"The Danish Security Intelligence Service estimates that it is very uncertain, whether the reported figures reflect the real number of racist inspired criminal cases," writes Minister of Justice, Lene Espersen, in a series of replies to Enhedslisten's integration-spokesman, Jørgen Arbo-Bæhr.

Thus PET received 32 reports in 2004 as opposed to 53 in 2003 and 65 in 2002 - while there were no less that 95 reports in 2001.

Police districts has since 1992 been ordered to report attacks, which might conceivably have racist background and which are perpetrated against foreigners.

An ordinance which in 2001 was expanded to also included possible religious attacks - and irrespective of whether the assaults are against a person or interest of Danish or foreign origin.

In spite of this, the number of reports peaked with 166 in 1993.

So what does this article say?

• The number of racist attacks peaked in 1993 with 166 offenses.
  
• The number keeps falling and in 2001, the scope of attacks to be reported is expanded to include offenses based on religion - and offenses against ethnic Danes.
  
• In spite of the expanded scope, the number still keeps falling to 95 in 2001, 65 in 2002, 53 in 2003 and 32 in 2004.
  
• The Minister of Justice wants to be sure there are no "dark numbers" i.e. cases that were not reported - after all 32 is very low.
  
• With increased attention, the numbers begin to rise, but are still much lower than 10 years ago.

But 81 attacks - or even 32 - are still too much, you might say. Even one attack is one attack too much.

Of course it is, but let's take a look at some these incidents: PET has published summaries (PDF-files in Danish) for 2004 and 2005:

14. December 2004: Report against a TV-company for breaking the penal code section § 266 b [racism], since the TV-company had broadcast the murdered Dutch director Theo van Gogh's movie "Submission".

Showing a movie which is critical of Islam is considered a "racist attack"! I wonder if killing Theo van Gogh could also be considered a racist attack? The thing with Submission is the same as with the Danish cartoons. Once they become attacked by zealots, they become news.

18. April 2005: A person of Somali origin reported that a Somali club room had been subject to wanton destruction when an unknown perpetrator had broken a window pane.

We don't know why the window was broken and by whom. But since the victim is Somali, the incident is reported as a racist attack.

Some of the attacks are done by Muslims, against Danes, Jews and Apostates:

11. November 2004 a journalist reported having received a letter saying among other "You are a Danish-whore" ... "if you don't behave yourself, you'll get an Arab-circumcised cock in your whore-ass" ... "So don't ever criticise Islam again and get the fuck out of our quarter, which is now Islamic territory and not Danish".

23. April 2005 a person of non-Danish origin, who had converted from Islam to Christianity, received a letter from unknown persons, which had threats in Arabic. Among others that "he who turns his back on Islam shall be killed."

3. February 2005 a person of non-Danish origin received a letter signed "Hizb-Ut-Tahrir", which contained an exhortation to join Hizb-Ut-Tahrir or otherwise no longer be considered a believer, but an apostate, who will burn in Hell with all the dirty Infidel swine".

So the lesson is: If you're Danish, don't report racist attacks to the police, because a rise in numbers will "prove" that Denmark is full of jack-booted skinheads. In fact: Be vewy, vewy qwuiet.